Could We Save Lives by Assigning Each American a Place in Line for Vaccines?
by Aleszu Bajak, USA Today
Imagine a formula that could score each American’s unique risk of dying of COVID-19. People’s odds would determine their exact number in line for a vaccine.
The algorithm would take into account your age, your race, your full medical history and every one of your health insurance claims. It would marry that information with data about vaccine inventories and health care locations. You’d get an email, a text, or a phone call the week before your vaccine appointment telling you where and when to show up. If you turned down the shot, the next in line would take your spot.
The pandemic has brought such an approach far closer to reality than many might guess. Hospital groups in California, Boston, St. Louis and the Upper Midwest used medical records to score members’ risk of death when choosing who got first priority for shots, vaccine information, treatment or extra support.
It’s hard to know whether Americans would embrace a vaccine algorithm that tapped into some of their most personal information. Or whether people would accept a formula’s determination of who was at most risk of dying, blind to other values such as keeping teachers from missing work due to illness.
But if these objections could be overcome, some experts say it’s possible that the U.S. could save tens of thousands of lives during the next pandemic with a widespread system of vaccine microtargeting.
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